How China’s Dominance Will Reshape everything

Over the next three years, I believe the global balance of power in electric vehicles, batteries, and clean-energy manufacturing will shift faster than most people expect—and China will be the driving force behind that acceleration. What we are witnessing today is not a slow evolution but a structural transformation rooted in scale, strategy, and speed. And while this rise introduces challenges for the United States, it also creates significant opportunities for American companies, innovators, and consumers—if we understand how to position ourselves within this new reality.

China’s industrial capabilities are already unmatched. Today, China produces more than three-quarters of the world’s lithium-ion batteries—over 1,170 GWh in 2024 alone—and nearly 70 percent of global EV battery installations. It manufactures more than 12 million electric vehicles per year, accounting for around 70 percent of global EV output, and Chinese brands now represent more than 60 percent of global EV sales. Add to this its control over nearly half of the world’s battery-mineral import trade, and it becomes clear that China’s lead is not merely quantitative: it is foundational.

What matters most over the next three years is not just China’s dominance today, but its ability to leapfrog entire industry segments. China has already shown that it can compress decades of development into a handful of years, much like it did in solar manufacturing, electronics, 5G infrastructure, and now electric mobility. Over the next three years, I predict China will move even further up the value chain—shifting from being known primarily as the world’s factory to becoming a global brand powerhouse, technology exporter, and mobility innovator.

Chinese automakers will not simply be the world’s largest manufacturers—they will increasingly become the world’s most influential EV brands. In the same timeframe, China’s battery giants will continue to push ahead in next-generation chemistries, including sodium-ion, high-manganese cathodes, and solid-state pathways. And because China controls the most vertically integrated supply chain in the world, it will be able to commercialize these advancements faster and more cost-effectively than its global competitors.

However, the most important part of my prediction is this: China’s rise will not weaken the United States—it will reshape the U.S. economy in ways that create new opportunities. China’s scale will continue driving down the global cost of batteries, solar panels, EV components, and energy storage, reducing U.S. manufacturing and infrastructure costs. Lower hardware costs will accelerate American adoption of EVs, renewable energy systems, and grid-scale storage, which in turn will strengthen U.S. industries tied to installation, integration, maintenance, logistics, software, and energy services.

As hardware becomes increasingly affordable and commoditized, U.S. companies will have the freedom to double down on what America does best: innovation in software, artificial intelligence, autonomy, fleet optimization, mobility services, charging networks, and customer experience. These are the sectors where the highest margins will be captured over the next decade—and where the United States has clear structural advantages.

By 2028, I expect the U.S. market to be defined less by who builds the cheapest hardware and more by who creates the most intelligent, efficient, and user-friendly mobility and energy ecosystems. China will set the cost baseline. The U.S. will compete on the layers above it—where value accumulates, where customer relationships live, and where differentiation matters most.

China’s dominance is accelerating global change, but the opportunity for U.S. companies is to embrace this shift, not resist it. Those who understand how to leverage China’s manufacturing efficiency while focusing on American strengths—software, data, services, and system integration—will lead the next chapter of mobility and clean energy. Over the next three years, the companies that adapt to this multi-layered global market, rather than cling to outdated models, will be the ones that define the future.

This transformation is already underway. The next three years will simply make it impossible to ignore.